The case for Purdue basketball as a real national championship favorite

Caleb Swanigan meant everything to Purdue. He was the first Mr. Basketball in Indiana to commit to the Boilermakers since 1991, and their first McDonald’s All-American since 1996. He morphed into the most physically dominant player in the country as a sophomore, setting a Big Ten record for double-doubles and carrying the program to its first outright conference title in more than 20 years.

Somehow, Purdue has gotten even better without him this season.

The Boilermakers haven’t filled Swanigan’s void with one man. Instead, it’s been a collective effort from a group of five veteran starters who compliment each other well on both ends of the court. Purdue has shooters everywhere, an elastic man defense, and a pair of emerging centers who measure at 7’2 and 7’3, respectively.

Purdue has won 19 straight games since an 0-2 opening stretch at the Battle 4 Atlantis. They’re all the way up to No. 3 in the polls. And with showdowns against Ohio State and Michigan State looming this week, the Boilermakers sit in poll position to again take home the Big Ten crown.

This is how Purdue became a true national championship contender a year after losing one of the best players in program history.

Purdue’s four-out offense is almost unguardable

The Boilermakers have the No. 3 offense in the country right now. They’ve built it by putting four 40-percent three-point shooters around one of the country’s great post scorers in senior Isaac Haas.

Ask Michigan how difficult that is to defend after facing Purdue Jan. 25. When the Wolverines single-covered Haas, he scored at will, dropping 24 points on 10-of-14 shooting. When they left the shooters, Purdue rained threes, canning 11-of-20 attempts from deep on the night.

It was that kind of night for the big fella. 💪@BoilerBall's Isaac Haas feasted down low with 24 points and 6 rebounds, and this slam helped No. 3 Purdue pull away from No. 25 Michigan late for a 92-88 win. pic.twitter.com/R45gTbIMTy

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 26, 2018

When it was over, the Boilermakers finished with 92 points and another conference win.

Purdue takes 40 percent of its field goal attempts from three-point range, and they make 42.8 percent of them. That’s No. 2 in the country.

Haas is an impossible single cover for almost anyone. At 7’2, 290 pounds, he has soft touch around the rim (61.5 percent from the field) and is reliable from the foul line (77 percent). His backup is 7’3 freshman Matt Haarms, who’s quicker defensively and shoots 66 percent from the field.

Haarms is joined on the bench by Ryan Cline, another gunner shooting above 40 percent from three. It gives Purdue a tight rotation that keeps the four-out system alive regardless of who’s in the game.

Purdue has balance, too

Here’s the offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of every national champion since KenPom started tracking statistics in 2002:

National champion efficiency

Year	National champ	Offensive efficiency rank	Defensive efficiency rank
2017	North Carolina	9	11
2016	Villanova	3	5
2015	Duke	3	11
2014	UConn	39	10
2013	Louisville	7	1
2012	Kentucky	2	7
2011	UConn	19	15
2010	Duke	1	5
2009	North Carolina	1	18
2008	Kansas	2	1
2007	Florida	1	13
2006	Florida	3	7
2005	North Carolina	2	5
2004	UConn	9	6
2003	Syracuse	17	14
2002	Maryland	4	7

A couple trends:

• Every team but Shabazz Napier’s 2014 UConn squad has had an offense that ranks in the top 20. Thirteen of the 16 teams have had an offense that ranks in the top 10. Ten of the 16 have had an offense that ranks in the top five.
• Every champion has had a defense that ranks in the top 20. Nine of the 16 champions have had a defense that ranks in the top 10.

If we’re operating under the assumption you need to have a top-20 team offensively and defensively to win it all, here are the teams that currently fit that criteria:

• Purdue
• Michigan State

That’s it.

Purdue is currently No. 15 on the defensive end in addition to their No. 3 ranking on offense. Michigan State is No. 10 on both ends of the court.

If you’re looking at the elite teams around the country, you can make the case for the Boilermakers as the best two-way squad. Duke still has a sky-high ceiling, but their defense is a disaster. Virginia’s offense (No. 34 in efficiency) is always going to be a question mark. Villanova has two-way talent, but it lacks an imposing rim protector.

Now, efficiency rankings can change fast. Duke entered the tournament at No. 57 in defensive efficiency back in 2015. By the time they were cutting down the nets, they were up to No. 11. But at least at this point, Purdue is one of very few teams that fits the profile of a national title winner.

The next two games will tell us everything

Yes, Purdue is 12-0 in the Big Ten. The only tournament-bound team they’ve beaten in that stretch is Michigan, twice. Purdue won those two games by a combined five points.

Ohio State and Michigan State are both a level up from the Wolverines. OSU comes to Purdue Wednesday, then the Boilermakers make a trip to East Lansing on Saturday.

So far, Purdue has been beating up on teams that will be lucky to make the NIT during conference season. That changes this week: Ohio State and Michigan State are both legit. Sweep those two games and the national title hype for Purdue will begin in earnest.

Purdue might not have a player taken in the NBA draft this year. It doesn’t have a player who was ranked above No. 85 as a recruit. There is no superstar like Swanigan last season. Somehow, the Boilermakers still check almost every box.

Size, shooting, stellar point guard play, lockdown defense ... it’s all here. Purdue hasn’t made it to the Elite Eight since 2000. It hasn’t made the Final Four since 1980. It’s never won a national title.

If that’s ever going to change any time soon, this is the year.